Is the Fed’s monetary tightening about over? Maybe, maybe not but there does seem to be some disagreement between Jerome Powell and his Vice Chair, Richard Clarida. Powell said just a little over a month ago that the Fed Funds rate was still “a long way from neutral” and that...
I have been a fan of Japan as an investment for quite a while now. Shinzo Abe's economic reforms are, for now, paying large dividends. There are questions of course about monetary policy as implemented by the inventors of Quantitative Easing, taking monetary policy where it has rarely been....
Japan's stock market hasn't done much this year - the Nikkei is up about 4% YTD - but you can't blame that on poor corporate earnings growth. Earnings for the Nikkei are up about 30% year over year and profit margins are hitting new highs (from the FT): Shinzo Abe...
The EU Commission's measure of economic sentiment (ESI) continued to edge down in September. At 110.9, the index was 0.7 points short of its unrevised August reading and at its lowest level since June last year. The gauge has fallen every month so far in 2018. Read the rest at...
Elon Musk's lack of self control has finally bought Tesla a real problem. Does Tesla survive without Musk? That's a harder question to answer than it seems at first blush. The stock price is intimately intertwined with the aura of Elon Musk. Without him, Tesla is just a money...
The headline says up 4.5% but that was almost entirely due to a surge in aircraft orders. Ex-transportation, orders were up just 0.1% and core capital goods were down after three straight up months. Read the rest at Econoday  
As I sit here Monday evening with the Dow having closed down 2000 points and the 10-year Treasury yield around 0.5%, the title of this update seems utterly ridiculous. With the new coronavirus still spreading and a collapse in oil prices threatening the entire shale oil industry, recession is now the...
COVID-19. No one has seen anything like it before and hopefully we’ll never see anything like it again. As the pandemic swept across the United States, it swept millions of people onto the unemployment rolls creating the highest level of unemployment among Americans since the Great Depression.
Most everyone has heard of the Chinese proverb – or curse – that wishes one to live in “interesting times”. You’ve probably also heard that in Chinese the word “crisis” is composed of two symbols, one that denotes “danger” and another that means “opportunity”. Well we certainly...