Jeremy Siegel: 50% Probability of Recession In Two Years

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A short interview with Jeremy Siegel by Robert Huebscher in Advisor Perspectives. Siegel touches on a number of interesting topics:

  • The US stock market is fairly cheap at 16 times next year’s earnings – as long as interest rates are around 3%.
  • The volatility we’ve been seeing lately is normal.
  • Probability of recession is 50% in two years.
  • Outside of a tight labor market there is no reason to worry about inflation.
  • 3 – 3.5% should be the high on the 10 year note yield – and we may not get that high.
  • The rest of the world’s stock markets are cheaper than the US.

As painful as it’s been for investors over the last couple of years to maintain that global portfolio, my belief is that such a position will pay off handsomely in the future.

Read the entire interview here.

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