ROSELAND, N.J. – July 3, 2024 – Private sector employment increased by 150,000 jobs in June and annual pay was up 4.9 percent year-over-year, according to the June ADP® National Employment ReportTM produced by the ADP Research Institute® in collaboration with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab (“Stanford Lab”). The ADP National Employment Report is an independent measure and high-frequency view of the private-sector labor market based on actual, anonymized payroll data of more than 25 million U.S. employees.
The jobs report and pay insights use ADP’s fine-grained anonymized and aggregated payroll data to provide a representative picture of the private-sector labor market. The report details the current month’s total private employment change, and weekly job data from the previous month. Because the underlying ADP payroll databases are continuously updated, the report provides a high-frequency, near real-time measure of U.S. employment. This measure reflects the number of employees on ADP client payrolls (Payroll Employment) to provide a richer understanding of the labor market. ADP’s pay measure uniquely captures the earnings of a cohort of almost 10 million employees over a 12-month period. “Job growth has been solid, but not broad-based,” said Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP. “Had it not been for a rebound in hiring in leisure and hospitality, June would have been a downbeat month.”
Commentary
Employment gains continue at a pace that is enough to absorb new entrants but not much else. With unemployment at 4% that’s a good thing.
The more important news concerns potential inflation.
Pay gains for job-stayers slowed in June
Year-over-year pay gains for job-stayers were 4.9 percent in June, the slowest pace of growth since August 2021. Pay gains for job-changers also slowed, to 7.7 percent.
While a slowing in wage gains is welcome, the gains are still well in excess of the current inflation rate. This may show up as additional future demand and could create the circumstances for higher future inflation.
