One of my favorite financial writers, Edward Chancellor, has posted this article over at ThinkMarkets, an NYU economic blog. Chancellor is the author of Devil Take The Hindmost: A History Of Financial Speculation, by far the most literate book ever written on financial manias. Yes, Chancellor says, the US is...
I have been a fan of Japan as an investment for quite a while now. Shinzo Abe's economic reforms are, for now, paying large dividends. There are questions of course about monetary policy as implemented by the inventors of Quantitative Easing, taking monetary policy where it has rarely been....
Tuesday's election result was about as expected as you can get in markets. The accepted wisdom going into the election was that Democrats would take control of the House of Representatives and Republicans would retain control of the Senate. Sure, there were scattered articles by Democratic partisans predicting -...
Japan's stock market hasn't done much this year - the Nikkei is up about 4% YTD - but you can't blame that on poor corporate earnings growth. Earnings for the Nikkei are up about 30% year over year and profit margins are hitting new highs (from the FT): Shinzo Abe...
Elon Musk's lack of self control has finally bought Tesla a real problem. Does Tesla survive without Musk? That's a harder question to answer than it seems at first blush. The stock price is intimately intertwined with the aura of Elon Musk. Without him, Tesla is just a money...
As I sit here Monday evening with the Dow having closed down 2000 points and the 10-year Treasury yield around 0.5%, the title of this update seems utterly ridiculous. With the new coronavirus still spreading and a collapse in oil prices threatening the entire shale oil industry, recession is now the...
Last week was one of the worst weeks in the history of the US stock market. Thursday’s plunge was the worst one-day loss other than the crash of 1987. Friday’s recovery was stunning as well but big rallies are typical of bear markets and that is, unfortunately,...
Stocks took another beating last week as the scope of the coronavirus shutdown started to sink in. The S&P 500 was down 15% last week with most of that coming on Monday after the Fed’s emergency rate cuts. Our accounts performed much better than that, but were...
Most everyone has heard of the Chinese proverb – or curse – that wishes one to live in “interesting times”. You’ve probably also heard that in Chinese the word “crisis” is composed of two symbols, one that denotes “danger” and another that means “opportunity”. Well we certainly...